Texas Alcohol Sales by Year: 2008 - 2024
Update: Restaurant Performance Deep Dive
Looking for specific restaurant concepts that are thriving? We've analyzed alcohol sales performance across 9,665 Texas restaurants by genre. While most concepts struggle, some places are klling it. See our comprehensive breakdown of restaurant alcohol sales by genre to discover which food concepts are crushing it in 2024.
Every month, Texas publishes receipts from venues required by the TABC to disclose sales. These ~25,000 venues consistently show "record-breaking" sales figures. Texas alone hit $10.3 billion in alcohol sales in 2024—a staggering 142% increase since 2008. What seems like an exceptional story that might make you think Texans have a drinking problem (which would benefit restaurants and bars) actually reveals something quite different once you start breaking down the numbers.
The $10.3 billion figure isn't a sign of a thriving industry—it's a mirage created by population growth and inflation, masking what may be the most significant behavioral shift in modern drinking culture. When you sanitize the data, it reveals something every owner, operator, distributor, retail asset owner, broker, and franchisee should be aware of: declining consumption that is likely going to accelerate.
We may be witnessing the beginning of the end of alcohol's 5,000-year reign as humanity's social lubricant of choice. Dry January might be spreading to a semi-dry 365.
Texas Gross Alcohol Sales by Year
Let's start with gross alcohol receipts. The raw numbers look impressive at face value.
| Year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ Change | $0M | $-27M | $248M | $395M | $407M | $278M | $344M | $302M | $256M | $293M | $502M | $434M | $-3015M | $3348M | $1612M | $527M | $167M |
| % Change | 0.0% | -0.6% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | -39.1% | 71.4% | 20.1% | 5.5% | 1.6% |
Not bad, going from $4.3B to $10.3B - looks fantastic!
But raw sales growth means nothing without context. Texas added over 7 million residents during this period—of course total sales went up. What happens when we adjust for population?
Texas Per Capita Alcohol Sales: The First Reality Check
| Year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ Change | $0.0 | $-3.9 | $6.3 | $11.4 | $11.4 | $5.7 | $7.6 | $5.2 | $4.0 | $4.7 | $11.9 | $8.5 | $-99.9 | $101.6 | $45.3 | $11.1 | $1.8 |
| % Change | 0.0% | -2.2% | 3.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | -40.3% | 68.5% | 18.1% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
Per capita sales show growth from $175 to $308 per person - still growth, but 76% instead of 142%.
Now for the uncomfortable truth. What happens when we adjust those per capita figures for inflation using the Consumer Price Index?
Texas Per Capita Alcohol Sales Adjusted for Inflation
| Year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $ Change | $0.0 | $-11.9 | $5.6 | $11.2 | $10.0 | $3.0 | $6.4 | $3.9 | $1.5 | $2.5 | $9.8 | $6.1 | $-118.3 | $109.0 | $36.8 | $-1.3 | $-4.0 |
| % Change | 0.0% | -5.0% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | -41.4% | 65.0% | 13.3% | -0.4% | -1.3% |
Here's an improved version:
Twelve years of growth (relatively), followed by COVID and a huge COVID recovery. In 2023 and 2024, though, sales declined—and they accelerated their decline in 2024. It's the first time that sales fell on an adjusted basis outside of a recession or a global pandemic.
The Huberman Effect, Social Media Health Focus, and Gen-Z Drinking Habits
You can't understand this trend without acknowledging the broader cultural forces reshaping American attitudes toward alcohol. Andrew Huberman's influence alone—along with a multitude of other online personalities preaching zero-alcohol lifestyles—represents something unprecedented: mainstream "cool" anti-drinking campaigns.
The share of adults under age 35 who say they ever drink dropped 10 percentage points in two decades, falling to 62% in 2021-2023 from 72% in 2001-2003, according to Gallup. But the real shock comes when you compare generations directly.
Only 18-20% of Americans of legal drinking age and under 28 years old said they regularly drank beer, wine, or spirits. Among Millennials born between 1980 and 1994, alcohol consumption was much higher, at 31% and 30% respectively.
Think about that: Gen Z consumes alcohol at roughly 60% the rate of Millennials. Millennials are having kids—the generation that partied to LMFAO's "Shots" has left the bar, and no one is coming in after them.
Presumably, as more Millennials and older Gen Z retire from the bar scene, and younger Gen Z makes up a more pronounced share of the population, this negative acceleration will likely intensify.
This isn't your grandmother's temperance movement—there's not a Baptist or Mormon in sight of this campaign.
A Bright Spot: Pickleball
We've married data from every license to the associated meta data (reviews, website, social media), we know who is who and put everyone into a bucket. When we analyzed venues by their specific characteristics, one maybe not so surprising beacon of light stood out: pickleball bars.
Pickleball venues—all 42 of them with full 2023 sales data—achieved show a remarkle 6.1% revenue growth in 2024. Not only did they buck the industry trend, they thrived while nearly every other venue type declined.
This makes sense when you consider the broader cultural shifts we've discussed. Pickleball venues represent something that everyone might want to consider.
- Health-conscious activity that happens to include alcohol rather than alcohol-focused socializing
- Brings Everyone Together even if you're not a drinker, you can still come and play. Not sure if non-drinkers will be going to Dirty 6th all that often.
Understand the Data with Bar Savvy
This isn't just about pickleball—though maybe it is if you were on the fence about adding a pickleball component to your concept. It's about adapting to this strange new world of ours: pivoting when needed, copying from the best, and surviving a fundamentally different economy. For restaurants and bars, this shift is particularly challenging since they used to rely on alcohol sales and their fantastic margins to make the overall business profitable. Those days might be behind us, better figure somethingh else out.
Cheers,
The Bar Savvy Team